As the Euro crisis rumbles inexorably on, we lurch from one disaster to the next. Each week brings the worrying news of another protest, strike or even riot from a different corner of the continent. Over the summer, the European Central Bank’s pledge to intervene in bond markets to help troubled eurozone countries was seen as a silver bullet – some diplomats even called it “Mario Draghi’s ice cream”. But by the autumn, it had been exposed by waning enthusiasm in Germany and more challenges in Greece, Spain and, most importantly, Catalonia. (more…)
What a difference a year makes. The UK economy lurched into 2011 sluggish but hopeful, with predictions of GDP growth of 2.2 per cent, surging to a healthy 3 per cent in 2012. Inflation was thought to be a temporary worry at an RPI rate of 4.7 per cent. Unemployment was stable just below 2.5 million.
The October 2010 Spending Review had set the scene for an austerity programme to reduce the budget deficit. There was more fear of cutbacks than actual pain – although that was to come soon enough. (more…)
At the start of the year, many businesses were still pursuing a policy of completely integrated supply chains. Few had given thought to what we now know as ‘high impact, low probability’ events. Then the earthquake and tsunami hit Japan. Our assumptions about the resilience of supply chains were shattered as its toll on the production of many different goods became apparent. We must now think very differently about single supply arrangements if that supplier could face major disruption. (more…)